Freight

Pros & cons

The current path vs the MMA plan.

Cons: the existing system and current trajectory. Pros: the integrated MMA corridor programme.

Cons of the current system & plan

Rail freight share collapsed from 28% to 2%

Over a generation, Australian rail freight has been hollowed out. The network exists; the freight has migrated to road. Decarbonising freight on diesel B-doubles is structurally impossible.

May 2026: Inland Rail’s northern half cancelled

The signature freight infrastructure project of the past decade was abandoned, with $3.8 billion redirected to a Melbourne metro loop. Australia has no national plan for moving freight other than diesel trucks on roads.

Diesel sovereignty is gone

Australia imports 80-90% of refined fuel and runs approximately 30 days of diesel stock - well below the 90-day IEA obligation. Heavy freight is one major shipping disruption from collapse.

Floods cut the national network repeatedly

The single rail lines to Perth and Darwin have been cut by floods three times in four years (2022, 2024, 2026). National freight resilience does not exist as a property of the existing network.

Coastal towns suffer overnight diesel haul

Taree, Kempsey, Coffs Harbour, Grafton, Lismore, and a thousand kilometres of other coastal towns endure overnight B-double traffic that road infrastructure was never designed for. Quality-of-life degradation is continuous and ignored.

No plan to electrify heavy freight

No state or federal programme is in place to electrify heavy freight rail at continental scale. The implicit current policy is that diesel road haul continues indefinitely, contradicting net-zero commitments.

Pros of the MMA plan

Three electrified heavy-haul tracks restore rail’s role

The corridor carries three dedicated electrified freight tracks. Rail freight share restored - cheaper per tonne-km, lower emissions, faster, climate-resilient, not constrained by driver shortages or fuel imports.

Diesel sovereignty restored

Electrifying heavy freight collapses the largest single fuel-import burden the country carries. Transport energy converts from imported diesel to domestic electricity. Strategic vulnerability eliminated structurally.

Every commercial port on one network

Newcastle, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Fremantle, Darwin, Port Hedland, Gladstone, Mackay, Eden - every major export and import port connected to one national electrified freight network.

Flood-proof and climate-resilient

Elevated viaduct structure unaffected by the flood events that have cut the Perth and Darwin lines repeatedly. National freight resilience as a property of the corridor design.

Coastal corridor freed

Approximately 1,200 km of coastal rail and highway freed of freight as trucks migrate inland - driven by economics, not legislation. Coastal community amenity restored without political fight.

Defence logistics backbone

The continental electrified freight network gives defence logistics what it has not had in eighty years - sovereign, electrified, climate-resilient, continental-scale movement of equipment, fuel, and personnel.

Cost and Return Summary

The dollar case for Freight

CapexFreight rail capex sits inside the corridor build — 3 electrified tracks per Phase 0 spine alignment, plus continental freight corridors across Phases 1-3. Freight track $1.0–1.5 M/km per track working rate. See Memo 19 §2.2, 3.2.

Tier 1 — Direct SBC revenueFreight tolls: $500 M–1 B/yr from Year 1 of Phase 0.1 (locked). $8–12 B/yr at full network maturity (freight + maglev combined). Electrified corridor at ~45% cheaper than diesel road equivalent — existing operators migrate commercially. Most defensible projection in the programme — existing freight data is hard data. See Memo 20 §2.3.

Tier 2 — Enabled outcomes and cascading upliftFreight reform cascade (Tier 3): port efficiency rises, export competitiveness improves, coastal corridor freed of trucks (~1,200 km), road maintenance cost falls, mining transition routes activate. Every major Australian export commodity sees structural margin improvement. See Memo 20 §4.4.

Without SBC — what Australia spends insteadWithout SBC, freight sector commits $50–64 B for Inland Rail and continuing freight upgrades, plus $130–210 B for road network maintenance and expansion driven by continuing diesel road haul. Delivers conventional single-track freight at 80-100 km/h. No HVDC alongside. Trucks stay on the road. Memo 21 §4.2, 4.4.

Programme-wide ROI summary → · Memo 19 (cost) · Memo 20 (returns) · Memo 21 (counterfactual)