Every month, roughly 1,611 tanker and bulk-carrier movements carry the fuel, gas, grain and coal that keep the region's island nations running. A blockade does not need to sink them — only to make the lanes uninsurable. Then the count runs toward zero for every nation on this chart.
Won by whoever outlasts a sea-lane shutdown. Even the side that prevails finishes depleted — out of interceptors, reserves at decade lows, forced to settle because supplies ran out.
The US can pressure China back, but can't lift a blockade or resupply across a contested ocean — supply lines thousands of km long, fewer than 500 long-range anti-ship missiles, too few bombers.
China endures longest on reserves, pipelines and demand it can shed — but its exports stop too. The import democracies, Australia worst of all, sit on the wrong side of the gap.
A loaded tanker is a quarter-km of slow, radar-bright steel on an ocean satellites now read in full. Anti-ship missiles reach it from up to 4,000 km out; no escort rides beside every hull. One cheap drone is enough.
Self-reliance in fuel, food and energy, so the country can power and feed itself when the lanes are cut. Australia as the regional connector — not the frontline of a war no party can win.